Misinformation flooded social media after US President Donald Trump escaped a shooting scare at a Washington media gala on Saturday, reviving unfounded claims that he has staged assassination attempts to boost his political standing.

Trump and his top officials were evacuated from the White House Correspondents’ Dinner after gunfire erupted outside the ballroom. It was the third assassination attempt targeting the Republican in two years.

What is the ‘staged’ Trump shooting conspiracy theory?

The theory claims the Trump administration orchestrated Saturday’s shooting to distract attention from unfavorable news, including the unpopular US-Israeli war with Iran. There is no evidence to support this. Posts advancing the claim gathered 80 million views on X within two days of the shooting, according to disinformation watchdog NewsGuard. Many accounts making this claim previously said the 2024 assassination attempts in Pennsylvania and Florida were also staged.

Where did the staged shooting theory come from?

AFP’s fact-checkers identified the claims spreading primarily from anti-Trump accounts on social media. The narrative largely originated from a left-wing conspiracy movement that researchers call “BlueAnon,” a reference to the right-wing QAnon cult.

NewsGuard researcher Sofia Rubinson told AFP that many of the accounts making the claim after Saturday’s shooting had made identical claims following the 2024 attempts. Some viral posts cited those earlier incidents as supposed proof that staging shootings is part of Trump’s political strategy.

The White House on Monday blamed what it called a “left-wing cult of hatred” for the attack. A 31-year-old suspect, Cole Allen, faces a potential life sentence if convicted of attempting to kill Trump.

Following the shooting, state media in US adversaries, Russia and Iran, amplified additional conspiracy theories, including claims that the attacker had ties to the Israeli military, according to the London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

Why is the staged shooting theory spreading on both sides?

The theory has gained traction across the political divide, not just among Trump’s critics. In recent weeks, a growing number of MAGA influencers have also promoted the claim that Trump staged the 2024 Pennsylvania rally shooting.

Conspiracy researcher Mike Rothschild told AFP the theory now has advocates on the left, particularly among liberal content creators, but is also taking hold on the right as some lose faith in Trump.

Rothschild said the theory portrays Trump as “a master manipulator” and uses misconceptions, viral videos, or fabricated claims as supposed evidence.

The spread has been made easier by the scaling back of content moderation across major tech platforms. Influencers are frequently incentivized to amplify sensational claims, which attract followers and increase earnings on revenue-sharing platforms like X.

What does the spread of conspiracy theories mean for Trump’s base?

Researchers say the pattern reflects how Americans on both sides of the political divide have become prone to outlandish conspiracy theories, as mistrust of mainstream media drives audiences toward partisan influencers.

Walter Scheirer of the University of Notre Dame told AFP that political commentary has become a business, with sensational claims valued more than factual reporting. “The actual politics of a party is now secondary to the monetization of the political brand,” he said, adding that in the long run, this is likely to weaken Trump’s base.