Countries party to the global nuclear non-proliferation treaty are set to gather at the United Nations on Monday, with prospects for agreement dim as geopolitical tensions rise and arms control frameworks weaken.

The meeting will review the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, widely considered the cornerstone of global efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms and promote disarmament.

Growing sense of crisis

Izumi Nakamitsu, the United Nations’ top disarmament official, said there is a broad “sense of crisis” among member states.

She pointed to the collapse of key agreements, including the expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia earlier this year.

“We are also beginning to see a quantitative increase of nuclear capabilities in all nuclear-weapon states,” she said, warning that the post-Cold War trend toward disarmament has stalled.

Expanding arsenals

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the world’s nine nuclear-armed states held about 12,241 nuclear warheads as of January 2025.

The United States and Russia together possess nearly 90% of that total, while both continue modernization programs.

China has also been rapidly expanding its nuclear stockpile, raising concern among leading industrialized nations.

Political divisions threaten progress

The NPT review conference operates by consensus, making agreement difficult. The last two meetings in 2015 and 2022 failed to adopt final declarations due to political disputes.

Issues likely to dominate this year’s talks include the war in Ukraine, tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, and concerns about North Korea’s expanding arsenal.

Risk of long-term erosion

Analysts warn that repeated failures could gradually undermine the treaty’s authority.

Christopher King said the pact may not collapse immediately, but could “over time, unravel” if divisions persist.

Meanwhile, advocacy groups such as the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons say trust is eroding both within and outside the treaty framework.

New concerns emerge

Delegates are also expected to address emerging risks, including the role of artificial intelligence in nuclear weapons systems, with some countries calling for guarantees that humans retain control over launch decisions.

The conference is scheduled to run for four weeks, but with major powers at odds, expectations for a unified outcome remain low.