Pakistan’s trade deficit widened 5% in February from a year earlier, with analysts warning that rising oil prices following the outbreak of war could further strain the country’s external account in the coming weeks.

Data released Monday by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics showed the trade gap stood at $2.98 billion in February this year, compared with $2.85 billion in February 2025.

Exports fell 9% year-on-year during the month, while imports declined 2%, indicating persistent pressure on the external sector.

Economists noted that imports were already elevated in February and cautioned that the full impact of higher global oil prices has yet to materialize.

On a cumulative basis, the trade deficit surged 25% in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, crossing the $25 billion mark. The deficit reached $25.04 billion in July-February 2025-26, compared with $20.04 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Merchandise exports totaled $20.46 billion during the eight-month period, down 7.3% from $22.07 billion in July-February 2024-25, according to the statistics bureau.

Imports rose 8.06% to $45.50 billion in the first eight months of the fiscal year, compared with $42.11 billion in the corresponding period last year.

Analysts said that with oil prices climbing amid escalating geopolitical tensions, Pakistan’s import bill could rise further, potentially widening the trade deficit in the coming months and adding pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the currency.