Pakistan’s local cement dispatches are expected to increase 7% in January compared to the same month last year, reaching approximately 3.19 million tons, according to a report by Topline Securities.

However, they are projected to decline by 5% compared to December due to seasonal factors.

The decline is primarily attributed to winter conditions in northern Pakistan, where snowfall and rainfall have slowed construction activity.

Conversely, cement sales in the southern region are expected to see a modest uptick, driven by government-led construction projects and relatively milder weather.

Cement exports are also projected to rise by 12% compared to January 2023, reaching an estimated 0.5 million tons. Despite this annual increase, exports are expected to drop by 36% from December.

Key exporters, including Lucky Cement, Attock Cement, and D.G. Khan Cement, are projected to experience declines of 33%, 41%, and 72%, respectively, compared to last month.

Total cement sales, including local and export volumes, are estimated at 3.69 million tons for January, marking an 8% yearly increase but an 11% decline from the previous month.

The average retail cement price in January decreased by 2% in northern Pakistan compared to December but remained flat in the south.

On an annual basis, prices have risen 13% in the north and 17% in the south, according to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Industry-wide capacity utilization for January is estimated at 54%, down from 60% in December but up from 50% in January last year.

For the first seven months of the fiscal year, overall cement sales are projected to decline compared to the same period last year, with local dispatches down 8% and exports rising 30%.

The brokerage house anticipates an improvement in cement sales for the remainder of FY25, driven by stabilizing economic conditions and lower interest rates.