Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun is pressing ahead with direct negotiations with Israel while Hezbollah openly rejects them, deepening a political divide that has split the country’s leadership.

The clash, which escalated this week with an exchange of accusations between Aoun and the Iran-backed group, has revived fears of instability in a country still recovering from two exhausting wars. Lebanon has technically been at war with Israel since 1948, making direct talks politically explosive.

What is the dispute between Aoun and Hezbollah over Israel talks?

Aoun is pursuing direct negotiations with Israel to end hostilities, secure an Israeli withdrawal from the south, and demarcate the border. Hezbollah rejects this as capitulation, calling the talks a “grave sin” and accusing the government of surrender.

The dispute reflects two fundamentally incompatible visions for Lebanon’s relationship with Israel and its own sovereignty.

What does President Aoun want from Israel negotiations?

A Lebanese official source told AFP on Tuesday that Aoun “is proceeding with the option of negotiations… there is no going back.” The president’s stated goals include stopping the war, securing an Israeli withdrawal from the south, demarcating the border, and ending the formal “state of hostility” with Israel. U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped to host a “historic” meeting between Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.

Responding to Hezbollah’s accusation of “surrender,” Aoun accused those who drew Lebanon into the conflict of committing “treason.” Heiko Wimmen, a researcher at the International Crisis Group, told AFP that describing Hezbollah in those terms was “certainly unprecedented language.” The statement marked a notable escalation in the president’s public posture toward the group.

Beirut committed to disarming Hezbollah last year, but Wimmen cautioned that while Aoun and the government can negotiate with Israel, they “cannot make commitments in these negotiations that they can deliver.” Experts and politicians also fear that any attempt to confront Hezbollah militarily could split Lebanon’s army along sectarian lines, as happened during the civil war in 1976. Concerns about the army’s capacity to disarm the group remain widespread.

Where does Hezbollah stand on Lebanon-Israel peace talks?

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem warned on Monday that direct talks could lead to a “spiral of instability,” adding that his group would treat them “as if they do not exist.” The group has refused to disarm and is running a campaign among officials and supporters against Aoun. Before its damaging 2024 war with Israel, Hezbollah was the dominant political force in Lebanon.

Researcher and Hezbollah expert Joseph Daher told AFP the group “has become more than ever isolated on the political scene,” with its support base now largely confined to Lebanon’s Shia community. “The key issue is they do not want a peace agreement,” Daher said, adding that the group would apply pressure through media and possibly street demonstrations. Former Hezbollah lawmaker Nawaf Moussawi went further, reminding Aoun of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who was assassinated in 1981 after signing a peace treaty with Israel.

Can the Lebanese army disarm Hezbollah?

The truce terms state that Lebanon “will take meaningful steps to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out any attacks against Israeli targets,” with international support, but without specifying what form that support would take.

The army’s limited capabilities and the risk of internal fracture make a forced disarmament highly unlikely in the near term. The terms also allow Israel to act against “planned, imminent or ongoing attacks” by Hezbollah.

What lies ahead for Lebanon as the divide grows?

Nicholas Blanford, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, told AFP there are “two polar opposite visions of where the country needs to go.” He added: “I don’t think either side really has the capability of imposing their vision on the other. Hezbollah is not as influential and politically strong as it was before, but the state is still fundamentally fairly weak.”

The division is visible on the streets of Beirut. Across eastern Beirut, outside Hezbollah’s influence, billboards bearing Aoun’s image read “the decision is Lebanon’s.” On the airport road, graffiti reads “no to normalization” and labels both Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Moussawi as traitors.

Blanford said Hezbollah may resort to “street action down the road,” similar to 2008 when the group used weapons against political opponents before the government reversed a decision to shut down its communications network.

Blanford believes the government will be “more resolute” this time and will not retreat from negotiations. Israel, which has bombed Lebanon repeatedly since the truce, expressed eagerness for a “historic peace.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Monday that Hezbollah was “playing with fire” and that Aoun was “gambling with the future of Lebanon.”