Seven OPEC+ members are meeting Sunday to make their first decision on oil-production quotas since the United Arab Emirates left the cartel on May 1.

The UAE announced its withdrawal April 28, citing long-running disputes over production limits. The departure adds pressure to an oil market already strained by war-related disruptions across the Middle East.

What will OPEC+ decide after the UAE withdrawal?

The seven remaining members, Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, are widely expected to raise collective output by 188,000 barrels per day. That mirrors increases of around 206,000 barrels approved in March and April, minus the UAE’s former share. Markets have already priced in the move, so the tone of the post-meeting statement may matter more than the numbers.

Will higher quotas actually increase oil output?

Raising quotas on paper may have little effect on real-world production. OPEC+ output fell to 27.68 million barrels per day in March against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of roughly 9 million bpd, according to Rystad Energy analyst Priya Walia. She attributed that gap almost entirely to war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint by members.

Untapped reserves in the Gulf region remain largely inaccessible. Iran imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz on February 28 in response to US-Israeli strikes, trapping exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Iran is an OPEC+ member but operates outside the quota system.

Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has emerged as the main beneficiary of rising energy prices. Despite that windfall, the country appears to be struggling to hit its own quota levels as its war in Ukraine continues.

Why did the UAE leave OPEC+?

The UAE’s exit is “a big deal” for OPEC, said Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler. Earlier departures, Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023, were far less consequential. The UAE is the fourth-largest OPEC+ producer and holds significant untapped capacity, a key tool for balancing global supply.

The country had raised grievances over its quota allocation as far back as 2021. State-owned ADNOC plans to lift output to five million barrels a day by 2027, well above the UAE’s last quota of around 3.5 million barrels. That expansion ambition made the quota ceiling increasingly untenable.

What does the UAE’s departure mean for OPEC’s future?

The UAE’s exit leaves OPEC+ exposed to further defections. Iraq and Kazakhstan have repeatedly been accused of exceeding their quotas, and analysts say both could eventually follow the UAE out of the group. A UAE operating outside OPEC+ can produce at low cost and compete freely, potentially limiting Saudi Arabia’s ability to manage global prices through coordinated restraint.