Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ members raised their collective oil production quota on Sunday in a move widely expected by markets. The increase follows the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from the group earlier this week. The statement published after the decision made no mention of the UAE’s departure.

Why did OPEC+ raise oil production quotas in June?

OPEC+ raised its June quota by 188,000 barrels per day to signal that the UAE’s exit had not disrupted the group’s operations. The increase is similar to the 206,000-barrel daily hikes announced in both March and April, adjusted to exclude the UAE’s share. Analysts described the move as a show of control over global oil markets rather than a meaningful supply change.

What impact will the OPEC+ output hike have on actual supply?

Raising the quota on paper may not translate into higher physical production. OPEC+ output already falls well short of its existing limits, with total production sitting at roughly 27.68 million barrels per day against a quota of 36.73 million in March. Untapped reserves in the Gulf remain inaccessible due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Iran imposed the blockade in response to US-Israeli strikes that began the war on February 28. The closure has effectively frozen a major share of Gulf oil exports regardless of what quotas OPEC+ sets. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, told AFP the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given those constraints.

Why is the UAE leaving OPEC+?

The UAE announced on April 28 that it was withdrawing from both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ group after growing frustration with production quotas. The withdrawal took formal effect on Friday. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company holds a production capacity of 4.85 million barrels per day, which the UAE would now be free to deploy without group restrictions.

What message is OPEC+ trying to send after the UAE exit?

Leon told AFP that OPEC+ was delivering a two-layer message: that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt the cartel’s functioning, and that the group still controls global oil markets. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signaling that OPEC+ still calls the shots,” he said. Neither OPEC nor OPEC+ has commented publicly on the UAE’s departure.

Sunday’s decision followed an online meeting of seven member states: Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia. The group’s decision to omit any reference to the UAE was a deliberate signal of continuity. Whether markets interpret it that way will depend largely on how the Strait of Hormuz situation develops in the weeks ahead.